US Core Population
I have made the case previously that the deceleration of the core (25-54yr/old) US population was the cause of the '08 housing collapse and will reiterate this here. First, to understand the importance of this segment of the population, the chart below shows the near 1:1 correlation of total US energy consumption to the size and employment of this group.
For the charts below, I've added the population growth among the core population alongside the same variables as above. Unfortunately, the data set for 25-54yr/old full time employees is fairly short, only going back to 2000 (btw- at year end 2016, there were essentially the same number of 25-54yr/old full time employees as there were in 2000 and over a million fewer than the peak in 2007). Anyway, I'm using the far lower standard of employment (containing both full and part time workers) to see the longer term changes in the 25-54yr/old segment. It's actually god-awful, economically speaking.
But this plan is even worse than the last, as demographics and population growth are only getting worse. As this bubble blows (and it's high time as rents as a % of renters incomes are completely ludicrous and at unsustainable levels in nearly all bubble epicenters) retirees and investors are about to get slaughtered, destroying decades of savings in likely under a single year. Short of the government directly nationalizing the housing market, there are soon to be final and horrific financial and economic convulsions as housing prices collapse across America (and the RE collapse across rural America is likely to be total and complete while the urban bubble epicenters may rise once more...but more on that another day). So many hard working, generally good people who tried to play by the rules will be wiped out. I only hope I'm terribly wrong and some better outcome awaits us...but I don't think so.